Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction - MLB Picks 8/19/23

San Diego Padres (59-64) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (62-61)

Game Info: Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 8:40 pm (Petco Park)

Yu Darvish (8-8) (4.24) vs () ()

Betting Odds: San Diego Padres -140 / Arizona Diamondbacks +129 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The San Diego Padres will host the Arizona Diamondbacks for games three and four of their divisional series this Saturday from Petco Park. San Diego took game one in shutout fashion, 4-0. 

Diamondbacks Preview & Projected Starter

Arizona enters at 62-61 after falling to San Diego. The Diamondbacks were silenced at the plate last night, and they’ll attempt to turn things around Saturday.  used a strong pitching effort to pick up their third straight win, and they’ll look to steal another in SD here.  The Arizona offense is scoring 4.34 runs per Game, while batting .257, with a .326 on-base percentage. The pitching staff carries a 4.41 ERA, with a 1.34 WHIP. 

Merrill Kelly (9-5, 3.21 ERA, 118 Ks) will get the call for Arizona. The fifth-year pitcher came through with a strong start at Coors last time out, tossing a season-high eleven strikeouts, while holding the Rockies to two runs thru six innings. Kelly has opened August with three straight quality starts, while holding teams to three runs or less in twelve of his previous thirteen appearances. The Houston native struggled a bit in his lone matchup with San Diego this season (5 IP, 4 ER, L), but that was back in April, and he’s in much better form currently . 

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Arizona has yet to name a start for Game two.

DBacks Player Trends & Props

Christian Walker was cooled off by San Diego in the series opener, but he’s totaled multiple bases in five of the last seven games, and he’s Arizona’s leader in home runs (28) and RBI (82).   

Corbin Carroll has scored a run in eight of the last ten games, and he’s posting nice splits of .270/21/59. 

Ketel Marte has collected a hit in five of the last eight games, and he’s first on the team in batting (.277) and hits (122), with nineteen homers and 62 RBI.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has recorded a hit in seven of the last ten Games, and he’s posting a line of .258/19/64.

 

Padres Preview & Projected Starter 

San Diego moved to 59-64 after defeating Arizona. The Padres used an electric eighth inning to get back into the win column, and they’ll look to carry that momentum into Saturday’s action. The San Diego offense is scoring 4.31 runs per game, while batting .228, with a .317 on-base percentage. The pitching staff carries a 3.76 ERA, with a 1.23 WHIP. 

San Diego has yet to name a starter for game one.

Yu Darvish (8-7, 4.36 ERA, 85 Ks) will get the start for San Diego. The veteran pitcher managed to go seven innings in his start versus Baltimore last week, but he gave up four runs and ended up taking the loss. Darvish has been pretty solid since the All-Star break, with five of his last seven outings resulting in a quality start. Darvish earned a win in Phoenix back in April, holding the DBacks to one run en route to his first victory, and he’ll look to replicate that effort here Saturday night.  

Padres Player Trends & Props

Juan Soto has only one hit over his last five Games, but he still leads the Padres in home runs (24) and RBI (75), with 111 hits.

Fernando Tatis provided an electric two-run shot in the game two win, and he’s posting a solid line of .268/20/65. 

Xander Bogaerts has collected a hit in seven of the last nine games, and he leads the Pads in hits (119), while batting .270.   

Ha-Seong Kim brings an identical 7/10 hit trend in this matchup,  and he leads SD in batting (.284), with 15 homers and 42 RBI.

Manny Machado is second in the team in homers (21) and RBI (72). 

 

Corey’s Free Pick G1

Merrill Kelly comes into an interesting spot in game one, as he’s been in great form, but his bats have struggled here in SD. Even if the offense doesn’t come for the DBacks, we can count on a strong outing from Kelly, and I think we have the ingredients for an under here in game one. 

Corey’s Free Pick G2

Now with Yu Darvish set to go at home in game two, I love leaning on the Padres to win Saturday night. Darvish has been excellent aside from a start against Pittsburgh since the All-Star break, and there’s a good chance he keeps rolling here at Petco. If Arizona drops game one, look for an extra bit of fight from them in the finale as well. Let’s back San Diego to win here, and double down with the over for game two on Saturday night.

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